For hard-core Democrats who long to see a donkey kick the Shrub out of the White House, John Kerry’s macho posturing, borrowed phrases, cliches, and puns might make him seem like a winner, but supporters ought to learn a hard lesson from the Dean campaign.
Prior to the vagaries of the Iowa caucuses, the echo chamber of the Dean blog and the circle of political pundits had all assumed Dean would sweep the early contests and move on to take the nomination. But Dean’s Iowa Perfect Storm turned into a perfect storm of poor management, negative campaigning, and negative press, leaving him with a third place finish and a severely weakened position for every other race. The Iowa lesson? Outside the echo chamber, caucus-goers were tuning in at the last minute and choosing the candidates projecting positive images. Before Kerry-backers do too much self-congratulating, they should understand that the road to the White House is a long, hard slog.
But there is also a post-Iowa lesson. While the leader of the free world promoted marriage and discouraged steroid use by athletes, top billing was given to Kerry because he had beaten Dean. Second billing went to Dean, because he provided that 15 second clip (out of context!) of Wrestlemania fervor, which dominated the national talk shows and news programs. Bush and Edwards both lost airtime to the man who beat Dean and the man who screamed. As it happens, much of the American public was exposed to the Democratic race and began to wonder if Kerry could (or should) supplant Bush. Newsweek’s post New Hampshire poll showed Kerry favored over Bush 48 to 46. That’s right. Kerry the uninspired, rambling, Senatorial politician from Massachusetts beating Bush the bumbling, wartime President from Texas.
There is no way Kerry could have garnered all of this attention by himself. And that’s the first step in taking on Bush. Like it or not, the media are fascinated by Dean and the entire Deaniac movement, and the longer Dean stays in the race, the better it is for whoever wins the Democratic nomination. Americans need to know what this party stands for before they’ll touch the screen, fill the oval, or punch the chad for the nominee, and Democrats ought to cherish whatever free publicity they can get.
Whichever way this nomination race turns out, the Democrats owe Howard Dean a lot: he made it okay to stand up and oppose George Bush, he showed them how to raise money, and he’s grabbed the media spotlight for the Democrats. If this were a just world, these accomplishments alone would win him the nomination.
Posted on February 2nd, 2004