StudioGlyphic

When it comes down to it, Gore was declared the loser because of 5 electoral votes. Without winning a single Southern State, Gore racked up 266 votes. Bush squeaked into his lead when he was awarded Florida's 25 electoral votes (before Florida, Bush was trailing Gore by 20 electoral votes). Is it possible for Dean to win the Presidency without winning in the South? Absolutely.

5 votes. Had Gore taken just 3 of Bush's votes, he would have been declared the winner. Think about it. Where would those votes come from? There are three obvious answers:

Florida (537 votes)

This goes without saying. The final official count showed a 537 vote difference. If blacks and ex-cons had not been disenfranchised, if Democratic party officials had not approved a ballot that confused people, if all the votes had been counted, if they had excluded military votes postmarked after Election Day, if Nader had not earned nearly 100,000 votes, Florida and its 25 electoral votes would have been Gore's.

New Hampshire (7,211 votes)

Gore trailed Bush in New Hampshire by 7,211 votes, but Nader received 22,198 votes, more than three times that difference. Had Nader not campaigned in New Hampshire, it is very likely that a good percentage of those 22,000 votes would have gone to Gore, and New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes would have changed history.

Tennessee (80,229 votes)

For Chrissakes, can't you win your home state? Or how about Bill Clinton's state, where you lost by 50,172 votes?

But what this means is that Dean can safely downplay the South, despite wanting to be the candidate for White Southerners, provided that he wins every state Gore won and one more. The blue states that were won by 5% of the vote or less were:

New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Michigan.

The outlook is good for keeping these states. In 2000, Nader won 2-5% of the vote in each of these states. Provided that Dean does not piss off the Naderites and continues to grow his grassroots support, these states can remain blue. In New Mexico, the governor is a very popular, larger-than-life Democrat. While Bush's "El Dubya" pandering in 2000 won him significant support in the Latino communities, his neglect of Mexico and the tougher restrictions on immigration since that time has likely eroded support for Bush. The steel tariff issue is likely to hit hard in both Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Pennsylvania because the tariffs are likely to be lifted. In Michigan because the tariffs hurt auto manufacturing and other steel-consuming industries. The recent mayoral election in Philadelphia galvanized Democrats around a mayor seen to be the subject of a political attack by the Federal government. In Oregon and Iowa, the war is likely to be an important issue. In Iowa, Dean's energy platform will gain favor.

The red states decided by 5% of the votes or fewer were:

Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

The landslide reelection of Jeb Bush does not necessarily bode well for Florida. However, the election in 2000 was very close, and Dean may do well to recruit Graham for the campaign trail. In fact, getting Clinton, Gore, and Clark to campaign in Tennessee and Arkansas, as well as Florida, would probably be a very good idea, provided that Gore maintains his recently-emerged humanity. We can also expect organizations like MoveOn.org to undertake a massive voter registration campaign in Florida to counter the machinations of the Republican Party. New Hampshire could be won; without Nader, and as a governor of a neighboring state, New Hampshire residents may want to see a fellow New Englander in office. Ohio's been hit hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs as well as problems with energy production and transmission.

So is it winnable? Absolutely. Is it going to be tough? You bet.