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December 31, 2003
Presidential polls 11 months before the election
CNN.com - Mark Shields: A little perspective, please - Dec. 29, 2003
The emerging conventional wisdom in both press and Washington circles is clear. Because the stock market is up, Saddam is in custody, and President George W. Bush's poll numbers have improved, the Democrats, without any prospect of victory next November 2 had best begin working on their election-night concession speech.
Once again, the inside-the-Beltway political-press consensus is clear, straightforward and wrong.
...
Have they forgotten or do they not know that the last Democrat to challenge a sitting Republican president, on April 1 of the election year, had the support of just 25 percent of voters and trailed the incumbent by 20 points? That, of course, was Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who, as late as June of 1992, had just 24-percent support and was running third behind both President George H.W. Bush and independent Ross Perot.
In November 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with 43 percent of the national vote to George H.W. Bush's 37 percent.
...
Presidential polls 11 months before an election have all the permanence of figures written in wet sand at the ocean's edge, waiting for the next tide.
Posted by glyphic at December 31, 2003 01:04 AM