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This episode of Left, Right & Center has Matt Miller getting ticked off and petty because he supported the war in Iraq and the two lefties are criticizing him for it. I don't really think much about the panelists, but I do like the fact that they discuss issues, and not just the Democratic horse race. Arianna's good, though. She's also a Dean supporter. Bob likes all of them, though I can see that he was leaning toward Clark before, and Kerry now. So no one likes Edwards?

I've said it before, but really you should read Campaign Desk everyday (as well as the Note). Here are some great recent posts:

Is Anybody Looking For Any Facts?

Campaign Desk criticizes the Washington Press Corps for not following up on what is meant by "weapons of mass destruction-related program activities." According to testimony by David Kay before the Senate Armed Services Committee, these WMDRPA could include what amounts to a bunch of studies. Asked how many countries are engaged in WMDRPA, Kay admitted there were 50. Why isn't anyone on this?

Sawyer Gets It Right (Finally)

Campaign Desk gives Diane Sawyer credit for finding other versions of the Iowa speech showing that Dean's shouting was barely audible over the roar of the crowd. By using the unidirectional mic audio, the news organizations effectively took his speech out of context. Diane Sawyer apologizes and gets quotes from the heads of news organizations.

Letting Kerry Off the Hook

Campaign Desk takes issue with allowing a Kerry quote to stand without challenge. At issue is his quote about winning without the South.

Making Sense of It All

Campaign Desk lauds Robin Toner for being able to present the big picture. Dean may have lost the first two contests, but he's changed the entire nomination race.

The "front-runner" gets more critical press, which is entirely appropriate. The difference here, I think, is that there are more substantive things to criticize about Kerry's record (or lack thereof). This one's about campaign financing.

The Washington Post's Jim VandeHei reports that "Kerry Leads in Lobby Money."

Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), who has made a fight against corporate special interests a centerpiece of his front-running campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, has raised more money from paid lobbyists than any other senator over the past 15 years, federal records show.

Kerry or any other longtime politician inevitably faces this charge when running for president as a self-styled reformer. Unless the candidate is someone like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has made a name for himself by fighting for reform and against corporate giveaways, or a self-financed independent, like Ross Perot in the 1990s, it is very hard to turn the theme into an effective campaign message, Noble said. "It's the classic situation: Most politicians get money from what they are calling special interests because they are the ones who give."

I would, of course, add that any campaign that shows the lowest percentage of $1000 and $2000 contributions, such as Dean's, could also claim the mantle of reform-fighter.

Kerry, who did not begin his campaign with a heavy emphasis on fighting lobbyists, appears to have usurped the special interest message from Edwards and Dean over the past few months. Now, Kerry's standard campaign refrain includes this warning to the "special interests" and their lobbyists: "We're coming, you're going and don't let the door hit you on the way out."

Kerry's stolen a lot from Dean and Edwards. Next thing you know, he'll claim to be the son of a mill worker who became a small town doctor.

One of Kerry's biggest -- and perhaps most controversial -- donors has been the Boston-based law firm Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo. The group, which lobbies on behalf of the telecommunications industry -- and employs the senator's brother, Cameron -- is his single largest contributor over the course of his Senate career. David Leiter, Kerry's former chief of staff, is vice president of a lobbying company affiliated with the Boston-based law firm.

Since 1999, Kerry has sponsored at least two bills and co-sponsored half a dozen that were sought by the CTIA, including industry-backed plans for winning lucrative auctions of spectrum, or airwaves. Thomas Wheeler, the former chief executive of the CTIA, and Christopher Putala, a lobbyist for the group, are both among Kerry's biggest presidential fundraisers.

Pretty sketchy.

I think it's part of the administration's strategy: "We're going to do something bad, but if we do, they'll call us on it. So if we do a lot of superbad things, there's no way they'll keep track of it all, and maybe, just maybe, we'll get away with everything."

Good thing we have people like Josh Marshall:

Talking Points Memo: David Kay's admission that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction

Keep track of these things:

9/11 Commission
Valerie Plame leak
Intelligence used to make the case for war
Secret energy meetings

Squeaky Clean? Not Even Close

But most people don't seem to worry about what experts say is a petri dish for food-borne illness: the home kitchen.

Sounds like the evening news.

They do have some good tips for reducing the bacteria count, though. First, wash your hands with soap and hot water. That means you, Bandur. Second, sterilize your sponges and wash cloths. Microwave them while wet, or just launder, in the case of wash cloths.

It's that simple.

GQ's piece on Joe Trippi (coming a day after Trippi resigned from DFA) contains this interesting tidbit:

His cell phone rings. It's his pollster, Paul Maslin, who not only has bleak news out of Iowa—but bleak news out of New Hampshire. Trippi hangs up and stares out the window.

"Kerry," he snaps. "They're the only asshole snake campaign that would do it." He sighs. "Every frickin' day now, I'm reminded of why I got out of this in the first place."

We need to find the proof.

ABC does a little analysis of the "Dean scream" and shows different footage that also contains the crowd noise as it was in the room. As much as I thought the speech was blown out of perspective, it did strike me as odd. Watch the video footage and you'll notice that Dean was trying to get himself heard over the crowd. Rather unsuccessfully, I might add. It was that loud.

Salon.com | Joe Conason's Journal: Mr. Bush's fantasy planet

Bush in answer to questions about the absence of WMDs: "...then we went to the United Nations, of course, and got an overwhelming resolution -- 1441 -- unanimous resolution, that said to Saddam, you must disclose and destroy your weapons programs, which obviously meant the world felt he had such programs. He chose defiance. It was his choice to make, and he did not let us in."

Of course, none of the press corps called him on it.

If you like Batman, download this film. Do yourself a favor and get the full 160MB version.

Batman: Dead End

They're saying "We Told You So" about Kerry's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those lying sacks of shit.

NDOL: Another Vote for Hope Over Anger

A post-mortem from a Dean supporter about what happened in Iowa, and where she stands now:

Daily Kos || HPE: Notes on what happened & what now

Noam Scheiber with more on Kerry's flip-flopping.

Scheiber notes that Kerry tried to stand on both sides of the Gulf War in 1991, and has constituent letters to prove it. Pretty unbelievable! I think Scheiber puts it best when he says "Will someone PLEASE put this guy out of his misery? Please?"

This isn't just playing "gotcha" on some minor issue or some comments taken out of context. Kerry's got a big problem with taking a firm stand on important issues because he either lacks a spine or he's an opportunistic sleazeball.

That's part of why Kausfiles is rapidly transforming into the Kerry Hate Files.

The AP has this story on New Hampshire:

Voter Turnout Sets N.H. Dem Record

More than 208,000 Democratic ballots were cast, shattering the mark of 170,000 set in 1992, when Paul Tsongas beat Bill Clinton.

Turnout in the Iowa caucuses was double the turnout in 2000.

Both of these are indicators of the interest that surrounds the race for the Democratic nomination, and that could translate into higher turnout for Democrats in November. In 2000, the contest came down to a half dozen states, where either candidate won by a margin of less than 5% of the vote. In Florida, the election was called with a few hundred votes separating the candidates. For many of these contests, getting one more vote per precinct could be the deciding factor between a second Bush term and the end of this madness. Throw a few Nader 2000/Democrat 2004 votes into the equation, and there's plenty of reason to hope.

The danger: nominating a candidate who keeps people home on Election Day. Is Kerry up to it? Can he count on anti-Bush sentiment alone to get votes? I've got that sinking feeling...

This time the propaganda is courtesy of The New Republic's Noam Scheiber, who questions the notion of Kerry's electability:

In my mind, the biggest problem with Kerry's glide path to victory is that he's yet to prove he can take a punch. The one time he took one--from Dean, on his war stance last spring and summer--he immediately hit the floor.

And, more relevant to the campaign, if Kerry can't do better than this against Howard Dean, how on earth is he going to take on George W. Bush?

There's a rising tide of scrutiny. Bring it on.

The AP's Ron Fournier has one of the better New Hampshire stories: "Kerry establishes himself as front-runner with N.H. victory."

Fournier's story is better because he actually reports the vote percentages for Kerry and Dean in the third paragraph. Some of the stories I've seen bury the results a bit further down. The New York Times and LA Times use phrases like "overwhelming defeat" and "far-off second," making the results sound worse than they are (in my opinion). Dean had an uphill battle after Iowa, and I think the ground he recovered is well deserved.

Anyway, back to Kerry:

[Kerry] assumes the weighty mantle of front-runner, a title that drew scrutiny to Dean's record and every lapse.

"He hasn't been in that position," Dean said of Kerry in an Associated Press interview. "We'll find out what happens."

Actually, Kerry was in that position pretty early on, and as I recall, he got flak for ordering provolone on his cheesesteak sandwich (apparently cheeze whiz is the appropriate and authentic choice) and for coming across as a man who wouldn't normally eat a corn dog at a state fair. The wingnuts derided him for being "French-looking." All of which is pretty stupid.

But Kerry does deserve flak for a lot of the important things that make him so dislikeable. I won't list them all here. Mickey Kaus has some pretty good anti-Kerry stuff on Kausfiles that shows him as the aloof, political-wind-watching bore that he is.

The man who joined the Navy because he wanted to be President said this in response to some of Dean's criticism:

"I vote my conscience. Unlike Howard Dean, I've fought in a war and I know the responsibilities of commander in chief, of how you send young men and women off to war," Kerry said, touting his service in Vietnam.

One would think that with the experience of Vietnam (the lies about the Gulf of Tonkin, lost friends and comrades), Kerry's vaunted foreign policy experience in the Senate, and his understanding of how the Bush administration operates, Kerry's conscience would have demanded that he vote against the Iraq resolution.

Unfortunately, Kerry is driven by a desire to be President that outweighs his desire to do what's best for his country.

Fuck Kerry. We're taking him out.

Howie Kurtz writes about the exit pollsters' "Loaded Question."

Are the media biased against Howard Dean?

"These are questions being asked after the voters have cast their ballots and therefore do not influence their decisions," she added.

Mickey Kaus (who hates Kerry with good reason) comments:

Exit Polls Go Home: Can we really be sure that the National Election Pool's Is-Dean-A-Madman? exit poll question doesn't influence voting just because it's asked of voters as they leave the polls? Does nobody overhear the NEP interviewer talking? Do people leaving the polls not run into friends in the parking lot, or go home and talk to their spouses and relatives who haven't voted yet? ... It looks as if the NEP is picking up, in terms of arrogance and irresponsibility, where the late, hated VNS left off. ... In this case, they asked a question (apparently prompted by the Dean Scream) that must have seemed wildly relevant four days ago but now seems like the detritus of an ancient media blevy! ... The NEP's question couldn't not have had some anti-Dean effect by artificially prolonging the Scream controversy. Maybe it was a small effect, but it's hard to believe it was neutral or positive for Dean. ... 1:23 P.M.

The Art of Camouflage - David Kay comes clean, almost.

Slate's Fred Kaplan does a little deconstruction and distillation of David Kay. The gist is that Saddam didn't have weapons of mass destruction, didn't have any working programs, etc.

For example, in an interview conducted late Saturday and published in today's New York Times, Kay says, "I'm personally convinced that there were not large stockpiles of newly produced weapons of mass destruction. We don't find the people, the documents or the physical plants that you would expect to find if the production was going on."

There were lots of "weapons of mass destruction related program activities" (using the verbal yoga from Bush's State of the Union speech), but that, as Kaplan points out, could have described "the act of reading a textbook on nuclear physics." Woot.

[Anecdotal evidence alert]

One thing I've noticed when having conversations with semi-reasonable Bush supporters is that they like the clarity and conviction that Bush offers. No muddling around, no "on the one hand this, on the other hand that." With Bush, you're pretty sure where he stands and what he's going to do.

The two Democrats these same people acknowledge as having some possibly good characteristics are Joe and Howie. Joe for his relatively conservative policy stances and Howie for showing clarity.

I don't really know what the Democrats mean when they talk about electability, and I suspect they don't either. Edwards points to his mouth when talking about how he's electable, but he doesn't really go into much detail. Lieberman points to his halo when talking about how he's electable, but I think many Democrats would prefer that he start a third party with his Republican friends.

Maybe these "electable" Democrats ought to talk to Bush supporters to figure out the basis of their support for Bush.

The New Republic Online: Matter of Interest

One big reason for John Kerry's recent political surge has been his ability to convince voters that he's the Democrat with the best record on fighting special interests--the one with "the courage to do what's right for America," as his television ads proclaim. Just yesterday, he told a crowd in Nashua, New Hampshire, "I have spent 35 years fighting for the values you and I believe in, standing up for people, and taking on powerful interests--as a matter of conviction, as a matter of duty, fighting the fights that are hard."

Back in 1995, [Kerry] backed a controversial measure that severely limited the ability of investors to sue companies engaged in fraudulent accounting practices--a legal change widely believed to have contributed to the accounting scandals of the last few years. The law, which consumer groups opposed vociferously precisely because they feared it would lead to white-collar crime, was part of Newt Gingrich's Contract With America. Yet Kerry voted for it anyway, not once but twice--the second time overriding a veto by President Clinton.

The Washington Post reports that the Republican-controlled Virginia House of Delegates "passed a resolution calling on Congress to exempt states like Virginia from the program's requirements."

Ohio and North Dakota are also reported to have skeptical views of the Bush initiative.

The legislators now running for the Democratic nomination dodge the fact that they voted for this legislation by saying that the Bush administration has not adequately funded it. But it's clear that this is a bad law:

The problem, some educators say, is that the No Child Left Behind Act has introduced a different way of judging whether schools are succeeding. It is not enough for 70 percent of students to pass the test. The federal law requires that everyone -- including minorities, students from low-income homes and those with special needs -- meet the same annual goals.

Many schools that have long gotten top marks from the state have now been told they are not making "adequate yearly progress," a confusing situation for parents, according to Virginia Board of Education President Thomas M. Jackson Jr.

I can't think of anything more absurd than Congress coming up with standards for every single school in the country. These people are not professional educators! They're businessmen and lawyers, and have no business telling schools what to do.

New York Times columnist David Brooks on Kerry's Good Intentions. Definitely worth reading.

It's not that his "heterodox" ideas are necessarily terrible (though some are), but he hasn't done anything about them.

Not Putting Their Money Where His Mouth Is

The ebbing of Howard Dean was a palpable relief to most of New York's big Democratic donors. "We are alive!" one leading fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee exulted the morning after Iowa. "I've finally got a product I can work with," was the way John Kerry fundraiser Toni Goodale put it.

But then Iowa got tighter and, at a benefit dinner last week for the International Women's Health Coalition honoring Kofi Annan, which was packed with Democratic donors, you could practically hear the exhaling. Some of it was about electability, yes, but it was also about a restoration to relevance. Dean's Internet base had taken away the money guys' power to anoint, and with it the glimpse of presidential fun-rides to come. The morning after that dinner, for instance, investor Alan Patricof and investment banker Stan Shuman, two longtime Democratic givers, would board a private plane for a jaunt to the Jeddah Economic Forum in Saudi Arabia with former president Bill Clinton. No such sugarplum visions were roused by the rise of Internet Dean.

It's what we've said all along. Dean poses a threat, real or imagined, to establishment politics.

KRT Wire | 01/21/2004 | CIA warns of Iraq civil war

CIA officers in Iraq are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war, current and former U.S. officials said Wednesday, starkly contradicting the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address.

God damn those fucking morons. If a civil war breaks out, Iran and Syria will likely be in there via surrogates.

Wes Clark - She was just following orders
Howard Dean - She wanted to take her country back
John Edwards - She was optimistic about crossing over
John Kerry - Because the real deal was on the other side
Dennis Kucinich - To get the US troops out and the UN troops in
Joe Lieberman - Because the other side was more conservative
Al Sharpton - To stand up for fundamental chicken rights
Dick Gephardt - Because she was a miserable failure
Bob Graham - To find Osama bin Forgotten
Carol Moseley Braun - To take the "Roosters Only" sign off of the other side

Interesting week. I saw the results and was disappointed. Then I heard about the post-caucus yell. I found a copy of the broadcast and was stunned. The combination of the two things made me wonder about Dean's viability and whether to continue supporting him.

I realize, though, that he's still the best man for the job. There are a number of reasons I won't go into now, but there is one thing that I want to highlight from Slate's Chris Suellentrop:

The second thing that occurred to me was something from Howard Dean: A Citizen's Guide to the Man Who Would Be President, the book by a team of Vermont reporters. In it, one journalist notes that as Vermont governor, Dean never quite grasped that he was something other than an ordinary person, and that his words had unusual power. Sure, he had an uncommon job, but other than that, Dean thought he was just a regular guy. To a great extent, Dean has behaved on the campaign trail as if he still feels the same way.

It looks as if Howard and Judy Dean have decided that if they can't remain "just ordinary folks," they don't want to be president and first lady. That's admirable. But I also suspect that that decision, and not some pirate yell, is the biggest obstacle that would keep them from the White House.

Well, why the hell can't a normal person be President? Especially someone whose proven to be a capable leader? And when the bar is set by the chimp, these issues become almost irrelevant.

Boston Globe / New Kerry: Same as old one

And the Boston Globe's columnists are there to call him on it.

Salon.com | "An unprecedented and shameful event in American history"

Decorated CIA veterans demand that Congress hold the Bush White House accountable for exposing undercover agent Valerie Plame.

"Our friends and colleagues have difficult jobs gathering the intelligence which helps, for example, to prevent terrorist attacks against Americans at home and abroad. They sometimes face great personal risk and must spend long hours away from family and friends. They serve because they love this country and are committed to defending the principles of liberty and freedom. They do not expect public acknowledgement for their work, but they do expect and deserve their government's protection."

Boston.com / News / Nation / Infiltration of files seen as extensive

Republican staff members of the US Senate Judiciary Commitee infiltrated opposition computer files for a year, monitoring secret strategy memos and periodically passing on copies to the media, Senate officials told The Globe.

The office of Senate Sergeant-at-Arms William Pickle has already launched an investigation into how excerpts from 15 Democratic memos showed up in the pages of the conservative-leaning newspapers and were posted to a website last November.

"If Only He Hadn't Listened to . . . Me"

In a piece last October, Jodi Wilgoren of The New York Times described "the central dilemma and critical balancing act" of Howard Dean's campaign as: "How to galvanize the alienated newcomers and ideological diehards who have fueled his insurgency without frightening off the party leaders and moderate voters essential in a general election."

Now fast forward to this week. Dean disappoints in Iowa. And here is Wilgoren, explaining, in effect, that Dean fared poorly because he took her advice. The new wisdom: "the endorsements from Mr. Harkin, Iowa's most popular Democrat; former Vice President Al Gore; two of the nation's largest unions; and 35 members of Congress seemed to complicate Dr. Dean's message more than help spread it."

I appreciate Campaign Desk. You should, too.

Kerry's Globe Problem - Some of it may not be his fault. By Timothy Noah

"He's a stiff and a phony," Globe columnist Alex Beam told Chatterbox.

Even Martin F. Nolan, a former editorial page editor at the Globe who contends the rap against Kerry is not true, concedes that it was true before Kerry remarried and endured a tough 1996 re-election race against Bill Weld. "He would shake your hand and look over your shoulder to see who's more interesting," Nolan told Chatterbox.

Heh heh heh. It's so freakin' obvious when you watch the man. Can't stand Kerry.

CBS News | Skull And Bones

Bones is not restricted to the Republican Party. Yet another Bonesman has his eye on the Oval Office: Senator John Kerry, Democrat, Skull & Bones 1966.

Probably the oddest way of putting it, but sure, ok.

Iowans Reject Kerry by 62-38 Margin! By Mickey Kaus

I guess that means they reject Edwards by 67-33, and Dean by 82-18. Guys named Mickey are sure to be odd.

So far I haven't seen much on the punditpages about the realigned vote helping Kerry get his 38% plurality. But Saletan does talk about the unfavorables, which could have predicted the realigns. He also ponders the implications for the realignment of Gephardt supporters in the other contests. Gephardt, of course, didn't have much support, though he did have that union organization and fundraising power. I want to know what happens to them. Saletan also notes that Dean was Gored. Stupid media.

With 98% of precincts reporting, here are the final numbers, with delegates in parentheses:

Kerry - 37.6 (17)
Edwards - 31.8 (15)
Dean - 18 (7)
Gephardt - 10.6

Iowa was clearly an upset, since both Dean and Gephardt were relying on organizational strength to carry the day, and organizational strength lost out to "momentum." But the Dean camp clearly had an advantage over Gephardt's, beating them by a margin of over 7% (it was probably closer, but caucus rules tend to screw up these kinds of counts).

But where did the momentum come from? In the past month, Dean has been openly attacked by Gephardt. Kerry also engaged in some attacks, though not with the ferocity undertaken by Gephardt. The media also decided to take an overly critical look at their own annoited front-runner. Dean decided to strike back with negative ads and words. In the end, the two candidates who most openly sniped at one another and the candidate who underwent the most scrutiny ended up in third and fourth. So was it momentum for Edwards and Kerry? Or was it merely ducking out of the way of the Dean and Gephardt campaigns as they fell in their death struggle to the depths of Moria? It's all relative, of course. One man's fall can easily be interpreted as another man's momentum. Either way, Dean survived, Gephardt did not.

Just how relative are their finishes anyway? Kerry had a 20 point lead over Dean and 6 points over Edwards. But a last-minute bargain with Kucinich brought some of Kucinich's supporters into the Edwards camp in those caucuses where Kucinich failed to meet the viability threshold. There were wide reports of Gephardt followers funnelling primarily into the Kerry camp in caucuses where Gephardt failed to reach the threshold. That's potentially a high number (Gephardt received more than 15 percent of the vote in only 23 out of the 99 Iowa counties, according to the Washington Post). With these aspects of the caucus system coming into play, it may be that the finish was closer than it appeared; I would even go so far as to say that Edwards likely came very close to Kerry in terms of initial counts. Therefore, does this mark the end of Dean's bid for the White House? Not by a long shot. Does it mean he should rethink the negative aspects of his campaign? Absolutely.

As for New Hampshire, the Washington Post's Dan Balz reports that Jeanne Shaheen has high hopes for Kerry:

Shaheen recalled that in 1984, when she was leading Colorado Sen. Gary Hart's underdog campaign against former vice president Walter F. Mondale, Hart was able to catapult a surprising second-place finish in Iowa into an upset win in New Hampshire. While some Dean strategists here suggest that the "bounce" will be smaller for Kerry, because he is so well known in New Hampshire, Shaheen said: "I question that. There is a lot about John Kerry that people here are just learning."

It could be tough. Though Kerry started at the top of the polls and dropped precipitously over the past 6 months or so, his win in Iowa could translate into some "me, too" votes. Then again, some pundits, expecting a Dean win in Iowa, had been putting out the idea of New Hampshire flouting the Iowa results and picking another candidate. Either way, we enter this week with Dean ahead by 8 points, Kerry and Clark fighting over 2nd place, and an undecided vote big enough to make it anyone's game.

The campaign must do everything right to hang onto that lead.

ZDNet UK - News - Software giant threatens mikerowesoft

Microsoft is threatening teenage software writer Mike Rowe with legal action for registering and using the domain name mikerowesoft.com

America's Army - Special Forces

"one of the five most popular PC action games played online. It provides players with the most authentic military experience available, from exploring the development of Soldiers in individual and collective training to their deployment in simulated missions in the War on Terror."

All you have to do is register with the government.

Salon.com News | Avenging angel of the religious right

Quirky millionaire Howard Ahmanson Jr. is on a mission from God to stop gay marriage, fight evolution, defeat "liberal" churches -- and reelect George W. Bush.

I think I missed this altogether. Oh well. Watch this home-made commercial now.

If you want to read an article about it, go to Salon.

Newsgaming.com -- September 12th

Try this now.

CJR Campaign Desk

Neat. Analysis of the news media.

Study Published by Army Criticizes War on Terror's Scope

A scathing new report published by the Army War College broadly criticizes the Bush administration's handling of the war on terrorism, accusing it of taking a detour into an "unnecessary" war in Iraq and pursuing an "unrealistic" quest against terrorism that may lead to U.S. wars with states that pose no serious threat.

It recommends, among other things, scaling back the scope of the "global war on terrorism" and instead focusing on the narrower threat posed by the al Qaeda terrorist network.

The Emerging Democratic Majority WebLog - DonkeyRising

Random data to read later.

Salon.com | Bush administration challenges science in obesity report

You got that? Singling out fat and sugar is unfair. I wonder how many billions the junk food industry is worth...

NASA Cancels Trip to Supply Hubble, Sealing Early Doom

Sounds like a bad idea to me.

The Barreling Bushes

Four generations of the dynasty have chased profits through cozy ties with Mideast leaders, spinning webs of conflicts of interest

How these unusual relationships helped bring about 9/11 and then distorted the U.S. response to Islamic terrorism requires thinking of the Bush family as a dynasty. The two Bush presidencies are inextricably linked by that dynasty.

Michael Crowley talks about some guy who may be responsible for a Kerry comeback in Iowa... if it happens.

Noam Scheiber hears something sexual in Kerry's speeches and is not interested. First blogged on kausfiles.

His methodology is suspect, and the nature of the caucuses makes it so that it's very difficult to poll.

Kerry Starts to Pull Ahead in Iowa

This is going to come down to how many of each candidate's base of supporters actually makes it out to the caucuses on time at 6:30 Monday evening. Weather could be a factor, rides could be a factor, child care could be a factor.

And even when you've got all your supporters out there, what happens to those caucus-goers whose candidates garner fewer than 15% of the vote is anyone's guess. Will they evenly distribute themselves among the remaining candidates? Will they support the candidate closest to theirs in spirit/image/platform? Will they bumrush their candidate's rival's rival to cripple their candidate's rival for a later contest?

And once you've finally got everyone standing in a group comprising more than 15% of the total, just how many delegates that translates into is also up in the air. Confused? Yeah, me too.

I'd say his New Hampshire poll is more likely to reflect actual trends. But, and here's the big but, if these guys who say they're going to bring people into the political process actually do bring people into the political process, no poll will show that happening.

Mars Exploration Rover: Mars for Students: Schoolhouse Rocks!

If you send a rock to NASA, they'll analyze it and tell you what's in it.

Ambassador Moseley Braun dropped out of the race and endorsed Dean today in Iowa.

Some Dean supporters are fanatics. Check out this Deanie Cooper:

Blog for America : The People-Powered Express is in Motion! | January 15, 2004

Rob Reiner and Martin Sheen have been stumping around Iowa for the past few days, getting support and press coverage for Dean. This culminated tonight in a campaign event in which Sheen turned Shakespearean (and somewhat incomprehensible) and Reiner pumped the crowd. Tom Harkin also came out and stirred up the crowd before introducing Dean. That's when it got a little weird. A bus drives into the venue and there's Dean inside of it waving and grinning. Yup. The People-Powered Express.

But aside from that, this was a pretty good event. Dean's standard stump speech contained more details on specific Bush policies, but also expanded on the Ordinary Americans vs. Bush and the corporate interests theme that's been growing over the past few weeks. He's also incorporating a little more humor and ease into his speech. Nice touch.

Democrats' Miller will hustle for GOP's Bush

U.S. Sen. Zell Miller, Georgia's rebellious Democrat, said Tuesday he will campaign at President Bush's side throughout the year.

C-SPAN.org: Howard Dean at ''Caucus for Change'' Rally

Good speech. Lots of similarity to the standard stump speech, but done really well. He comes off as smart (in a good, common sense way) and authoritative.

No 'war' for Howard Dean

Howard Dean's major contribution to the debate so far isn't what you think. It isn't his innovative use of the Internet or his grassroots fund raising; it isn't even his nimble ability to transform the Democratic base's outrage over President Bush into his own personal political trampoline.

Framing it as a "war" was a conscious decision made by the president and Rove in the first days after 9-11. In those early, scary days, the truest war we were in may have been the war to frame the debate, because the way debate gets framed goes far in determining its outcome.

The winner of the Bush in 30 Seconds contest is Child's Pay. This was clearly the most powerful and well-done of the ads.

MoveOn Decides Not to Decide

The contest results, though, were inconclusive. Howard Dean finished first with about 44 percent of the 317,000 votes cast. That fell short of the 50 percent threshold needed to win the group's official endorsement. But, considering the ease of holding such a contest, another was believed to be forthcoming in the months to come.

Wes Boyd, the group's founder, said that while he was satisfied with how the first contest came off, he isn't sure it will do it again.

MoveOn is planning to run anti-Bush ads. They wouldn't be able to do that with their money if they endorsed a candidate because of the campaign finance laws.

Also on the page is an exchange between the two senators from Massachussetts.

It's been said before.... Salon takes a look at the media coverage of Dean:

Salon.com News | The media vs. Howard Dean

And yet, with all the focus on electability, most stories seem short on data that proves their thesis. Last week's Time story on Dean seemed to bury its lead, waiting until the 23rd paragraph in a 27-graph story to inform readers that, according to the magazine's own new polling data, Dean trails Bush by just six percentage points in a head-to-head matchup. That, despite a recent wave of good news for Bush on the economic and foreign policy front. It was a key fact that undercut the guts of the Time story (and every other Dean feature of late), which dwelled on doomsday scenarios for the Democrats if Dean is nominated. Others polls have shown the race to be less competitive, but the most recent Newsweek survey conducted Jan 8-9 found Dean trailing Bush by eight percentage points. That's hardly the making of an automatic rout, considering exactly four years ago Gore trailed Bush by 17 points, according to a January 2000 CNN poll.. In the end, of course, Gore earned more votes than Bush.

Democrats Put Tax Proposals In Context of Systemic Change

Far from welcoming the proposals, conservative tax reform activists are livid.

"They're going to going to make the word 'tax reform' into what they did with that other otherwise decent word, 'liberal,' " he said. "They're going to make it a dirty word."

Oh yeah. That's right. Steal the Republican platform like Clinton. Do what the Republicans do and redefine words and phrases. Ironically, the Democrat's "tax reform" plans would actually be reform.

And excuse me, Grover, but you and your buddies are the ones who made "liberal" a dirty word, you fucking lying son of a bitch.

This could turn out to be the year when the truth about the Bush administration's machinations all come to light. O'Neill's insights into the administration, the 9/11 report, and the Plame case could all come crashing down on the re-election efforts of George W. in such a way that he loses all credibillity. It will be interesting to see how they decide to handle these potential time-bombs; they'll definitely try to shift blame to some fall guys, and probably try to figure out whether it's better to get it over with in the spring, or delay until after the election.

Time: Confessions of a White House Insider

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill fought against the 2002 tax cuts, but found himself opposed by the entire administration, including long-time friend Dick Cheney, who bluntly admits the connection between campaign contributions and policy: "We won the midterms. This is our due."

O'Neill also sat on the National Security Council:

"In the 23 months I was there, I never saw anything that I would characterize as evidence of weapons of mass destruction," he told TIME. "There were allegations and assertions by people.

60 Minutes: Bush Sought "Way" To Invade Iraq?

And what happened at President Bush's very first National Security Council meeting is one of O'Neill's most startling revelations.

He got briefing materials under this cover sheet. "There are memos. One of them marked, secret, says, 'Plan for post-Saddam Iraq,'" adds Suskind, who says that they discussed an occupation of Iraq in January and February of 2001.

Today I lost 50 bucks or so at Hollywood Park playing at the $2 table. I played my hands right, but I didn't get enough good hands, and there were callers who would outdraw me with weak(er) cards. Pocket Aces, pocket Queens. Ugh.

It could have been worse: at one point I was down more than 90, and managed to score two big pots and one small pot in the space of 5 hands. That made for a pretty good comeback.

Anyway, my point is that maybe it's not a good idea to play at a table where you can lose your stack if you have 5 good hands that get outdrawn by some idiots and the house takes $3 a pot.

On another note, I won another few dollars at Empire, putting me decidedly in the black. One pot was won with a full boat, 9's full of 8's (I had pocket 9's). Another I took after the flop with a pair of Kings, flop showing a pair of 2's and an Ace. Pre-flop betting was capped with two callers, so the pot was decent, especially for a hand that had the potential of going disastrously wrong (e.g., someone making a boat with a lower pocket pair).

So maybe .50/1 with a .50 rake for every $5 is more my game.

I was watching the Linn County Dinner coverage on CSPAN featuring several of the Democratic candidates. Towards the end of the program there were several minutes during which the cameras just followed Dean around. One woman from the Arab American Institute tried to get a commitment from Dean about appearing at their event on Saturday. While discussing the possibility of making an appearance, Dean says, "You know Jim is endorsing us," referring to James Zogby, head of the Institute. The woman claimed she hadn't heard.

Did Dean let something slip on national television? Or was he exaggerating? Either way, it's very interesting. Could make a difference in Michigan.

Incidentally, James is the brother of John, head of polling firm Zogby International.

And hey, they're even chemical weapons. But they're probably from the Iran-Iraq war and nearly 20 years old.

CNN.com: Suspicious shells found in southern Iraq

FOXNews.com: Found Shells Contain Blister Agent, Tests Show

Washington Post: Gen Engineering: Clark Seems to Splice From Dean To Mimic Web Personality

Al Sharpton may be running for president, but apparently he is living like a king.

Although his campaign had raised just $284,000, according to financial records filed through September, the Sharpton campaign spent $1,675 for a limousine service in Oak Lawn, Ill.

Marginally unethical, I'd say, and certainly poor manners.

The column leads with examples of how the Clark campaign is copying the Dean campaign's web stuff.

Blog for America : Video: Sen. Harkin Endorses Gov. Dean | January 09, 2004

What a populist. He characterizes the opposition as martini-drinking, cigar-smoking, Neiman Marcus-shopping business interests. Eh. I like him anyway. Watch the CSPAN coverage of his Hear It From The Heartland forums to see why (unfortunately, CSPAN is inconsistent in their naming convention, so there's no good way to find all the videos).

The New Republic's come out with an endorsement of Lieberman. Eh.

They've also allowed their staff to make cases for other candidates, including Edwards, Gephardt, Clark, and Dean. I've always thought that Edwards should have dropped out earlier and kept his Senate seat. He looks really young, and has little experience in elected office. That said, he's had some good ideas and could conceivably try again in 8 years to succeed Dean. He'd probably still look damn young, but by that point he'll have some gray to give him some gravitas.

Anyway, back on point. I'm quoting Michelle Cottle who quotes Will Saletan on Edwards' great "work versus wealth" message:

The New Republic Online: The Wonk

Noting that the Bush tax cuts have shifted the proportional tax burden away from wealth-related income (by cutting taxes on capital gains, dividends, and inheritances) and onto workrelated income, Edwards argues that the administration has declared "a war on work." The genius of this "wealth versus work" formulation, as Slate.com's William Saletan has noted, is that it enables Edwards to push progressive tax proposals without falling prey to GOP charges of class warfare. "Gore said he would fight the powerful because they were powerful," Saletan writes. "Edwards adds a moral dimension: The economy depends on virtue as well as money, and virtue lies in work. The reason to fight for the working class isn't just that it has less money, but that it shows more virtue." This critique is a brilliant way of reaching out to socially conservative, blue-collar workers who might otherwise vote Republican. "Bush wins their votes by equating the free market with the work ethic," Saletan continues. "Show them where the free market betrays the work ethic, and they'll vote for the candidate of the work ethic against the candidate of the free market."

This really is a good way of putting it. I'll have to crib it for my own use.

President Bush showed little interest in policy discussions in his first two years in the White House, leading Cabinet meetings "like a blind man in a roomful of deaf people," former Treasury secretary Paul H. O'Neill says in an upcoming book on the Bush White House.

O'Neill Depicts a Disengaged President

Woo! Go Tom. Of course, I told him to do this as well.

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin to Endorse Howard Dean

"He's the Harry Truman of our generation," Senator Harkin said in an interview with The Associated Press. "Howard Dean is really the kind of plain-spoken Democrat we need."

I don't know.

Judge Moves to Allow Plea by Wife of Ex-Enron Officer

The timing is an impediment to a deal largely because of personal reasons. The Fastows are the parents of two young sons, and they are insisting that they serve their sentences at different times so that one of them will be available to care for the children.

"If Andy, her husband, has to go to jail at some time, we don't want the children to be without parents," Mike DeGeurin, one of Mrs. Fastow's lawyers, told reporters outside the courthouse. "For reasons I don't want to go too much into right now, five months will work."

Started off well. Won about $5 and made my $12.50 bonus on for playing 61 hands.

Then I started playing terribly and was down nearly $30.

Tightened up my play and started raising when appropriate and now I'm up nearly $25.

I'm folding lots of hands I would have called before, like AXo (where X is lower than 8 or 9). Even suited I'll toss these hands half the time (though I just called on A2s; I should have raised or folded).

Let's see if I can keep this up.

3:30 AM Update

Yeesh. I don't know what happened, but I was down by quite a bit. Maybe $35. I played smarter and made back $25 of it. Still above my initial deposit, so I'm glad of that.

My last win was pretty big, mostly because it was really close:

Seat 7: Phil
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 10 posts small blind (0.25)
Seat 1 posts big blind (0.50)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Seat 2 [ Qd Ad ]
Dealt to Phil [ Ac Kd ]
Dealt to Seat 10 [ Kc Jc ]
Seat 2 calls (0.50)
Seat 3 folds.
Seat 4 calls (0.50)
Seat 5 calls (0.50)
Seat 6 folds.
Phil raises (1) to 1
Seat 9 calls (1)
Seat 10 folds.
Seat 1 folds.
Seat 2 raises (1) to 1.50
Seat 4 calls (1)
Seat 5 calls (1)
Phil calls (0.50) <<< should have raised here
Seat 9 calls (0.50)

** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qh, 4c, 5h ]
Seat 2 bets (0.50)
Seat 4 calls (0.50)
Seat 5 raises (1) to 1
Phil calls (1)
Seat 9 calls (1)
Seat 2 raises (1) to 1.50
Seat 4 folds.
Seat 5 calls (0.50)
Phil calls (0.50)
Seat 9 calls (0.50)

** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ks ]
Seat 2 bets (1)
Seat 5 calls (1)
Phil calls (1)
Seat 9 calls (1)

** Dealing River ** : [ 2d ]
Seat 2 bets (1)
Seat 5 folds.
Phil calls (1)
Seat 9 calls (1)

** Summary **
Main Pot: $20.75 | Rake: $1
Board: [ Qh 4c 5h Ks 2d ]
Seat 1 lost $0.50 (folded)
Seat 2 lost $5 [ Qd Ad ] [ a pair of queens -- Ad,Ks,Qd,Qh,5h ]
Seat 3 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4 lost $2 (folded)
Seat 5 lost $4 (folded)
Seat 6 didn't bet (folded)
Phil bet $5, collected $20.75, net +$15.75 [ Ac Kd ] [ a pair of kings with ace kicker -- Ac,Kd,Ks,Qh,5h Ac(kicker card) ]
Seat 9 lost $5 [ Kc Jc ] [ a pair of kings -- Kc,Ks,Qh,Jc,5h ]
Seat 10 lost $0.25 (folded)

It's kinda lame winning with KK, but then again, my hand was favored over the other two, so I'm okay with that. I wonder if I should have been more aggressive when that king showed up. At that point I had top pair and a nice kicker. I guess I was freaked about the possibility of pocket queens. More importantly, I should have raised before the flop again to try to weed out the weaker hands. I wonder what seats 4 and 5 had that made them spend a few dollars each on that hand...

Er, later today, I mean. Playing With the Fish

Thanks, Iggy.

The LA Times' Mark Barabak reports on the NPR debate yesterday. He catches one of the reasons to support Dean for President:

Snowmobiling came up during a brisk yes-or-no round of questioning. All six candidates said they support limits on the off-road vehicles in Yellowstone and other national parks, although Dean differed somewhat by saying that implementation should be left to National Park Service experts, rather than lawmakers. Asked a follow-up, all — save Lieberman — said they had ridden a snowmobile at least once.

I listened to the debate as well, and there was some other instance in which Dean interjected, saying that someone's legislation was a good idea, but that it would have to be full-funded by the Feds.

As a former governor, Dean is probably acutely aware of the ways in which the Feds can screw the states. And as someone who has not been a legislator all his life, his solutions to problems don't necessarily involve writing new laws.

The Dean campaign is turning into a huge political machine, according to the New York Times: Gore and Others Fan Out to Back Dean in Force. Al Gore, Tipper Gore, Bill Bradley, Jesse Jackson, Jr., and other brand-name Democrats are getting out there to campaign for Dean. Of course, this never would have happened had the campaign not had so many indicators of popular support. Plus, I told Al Gore to endorse Dean, and that set the ball rolling.

The end of the article has this little tidbit:

On Tuesday, the 5-foot-8 (and a half, but he does not like to fuss about it) Dr. Dean stood a full head shorter than Mr. Bradley, the 6-foot-5 N.B.A. Hall of Famer, at the morning appearance in New Hampshire. By the time they got to Iowa, aides had set the podium on a platform, so the two men seemed of similar heights — at least while Dr. Dean was speaking.

So I guess it comes down to whether you want a President who is shorter or dumber more evil less articulate than you are.

True to tradition, I got the same phone as Adarsh. This also happens to be the same phone that Cory and Eris and Archana own. LG Electronics USA :: VX6000

It's nice. It works all over the house, the display is bright and crisp, and the user interface is really intuitive. This is probably the best phone I've ever had. The camera's kinda gimmicky but I'm sure I'll find a use for it. It's a good complement to my big zoom Olympus. It also fits in my pocket; there's a belt clip for the phone, but that would be dorky.

The iPod just got smaller with the new iPod mini.

Wow.

Former Sen. Bill Bradley endorses Howard Dean

Yay.

As usual, you can count on John Kerry to say something completely odd.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry said he wasn't surprised by the endorsement from his former Senate colleague. "I think endorsements are dubious. Look, Gore endorsed him and the race isn't over," Kerry said.

But since we don't know the exact question asked, we should go easy on him. After all, they might have gotten nasty and asked, "So does Bradley's endorsement of Dean mean you should just quit now?"

Washington Post: Out of Their Anti-Tax Minds by Richard Cohen

Heh.

So here it is. Playing at a low stakes table is almost not worth your time. Playing at a high stakes table can be bad for your bank account. Hmm.

You might think that I post a lot of links to articles. But really, it's only a tenth of what I actually read. I am your filter.

Flashback to 1992: Clinton has won many of the primaries, and the Democrats are despairing that the man from Hope is completely unelectable.

It is little wonder, then, that a growing number of Democrats are questioning Clinton's electability in the fall.

Many Democrats fear that all of this points to the possibility of very negative general election if Clinton is the nominee.

It's not just the White House. It's the whole god damn government:

The Union Leader: Dean has plans to bring House under Democrats

Mars Exploration Rover Mission: Home

Congrats, guys.

Dean makes the cover of Newsweek and Time again.

Jon Margolis' "Get ready for March Madness" previews the upcoming season.

The regular season is over. The playoffs are about to begin.

Well, actually, in this league, sometimes there is a tomorrow, even for the team finishing third. This is not one of those namby-pamby games like football or hockey. This is the National Politics League, specifically the Democratic Conference, and the tournament begins in two weeks.

Newsweek's Eleanor Clift offers this positive story about Dean in South Carolina, which sharply contrasts the derisive, almost surreal story by Mark Leibovich in the Washington Post.

MSNBC - 'Man, That Dude Can Dance'

A panel offering advice to President Bush and his Democratic rivals had just gotten underway at Renaissance Weekend in Charleston, S.C., when a surprise visitor strode to the podium. It was Sen. Fritz Hollings, South Carolina's senior senator, with a word for the assembled strivers.

Hollings said he wasn't endorsing Dean, but he has a reputation for speaking his mind, and South Carolina is the first big testing ground after Iowa and New Hampshire. All the candidates are eager to make an impression, and a kind word from the state's senior senator, a veteran of these New Year's weekend gatherings, boosted Dean's stock with the Renaissance crowd that gave rise to Clinton.

The New Republic's got an anti-Dean bias. They just don't like the guy. But they're also realistic about his lead in the invisible primary, which could very well mean that November's contest is a dust-up between Bush and Dean. While the other Democratic candidates are still projecting "doom and gloom" scenarios, TNR thinks it will be a close fight. With red states getting redder and blue states getting bluer, there will only be a few key battleground states--mostly in the Midwest, Mountain West, and Southwest, with some states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida thrown in for good measure. They reject the CW that a Democrat has to win any Southern states (with the possible exception of Florida), but maintain that a Democrat still has to campaign in the South to draw time and resources away from the battleground states. It's going to be a bloody, vicious ground war.

Paul Krugman: Who's Nader Now?

The irony is that by seeking to undermine the election prospects of a man who may well be their party's nominee, Mr. Lieberman and Mr. Kerry have reminded us of why their once-promising campaigns imploded. Most Democrats feel, with justification, that we're facing a national crisis -- that the right, ruthlessly exploiting 9/11, is making a grab for total political dominance. The party's rank and file want a candidate who is running, as the Dean slogan puts it, to take our country back. This is no time for a candidate who is running just because he thinks he deserves to be president.

Damn. He's starting the new year right.

2004 will be a lot like 1992.