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February 07, 2004

The Bubble of American Supremacy, or Soros' Sexy Title

In the December 2003 issue of the Atlantic, George Soros discusses "The Bubble of American Supremacy." He likens the neo-conservative "pursuit of American supremacy" to a market bubble, in which "a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality ... that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts." Good stuff.

As any good politician will tell you, it's not enough just to criticize; you need to offer solutions. Actually, good politicians won't tell you that, they'll do it. Not-so-good politicians will announce that this is the case and that they will therefore proceed to do it, and then do it. Postmodern era indeed.

Here is Soros' outline of the problem:

Globalization has rendered the world increasingly interdependent, but international politics is still based on the sovereignty of states. What goes on within individual states can be of vital interest to the rest of the world, but the principle of sovereignty militates against interfering in their internal affairs. How to deal with failed states and oppressive, corrupt, and inept regimes? How to get rid of the likes of Saddam? There are too many such regimes to wage war against every one. This is the great unresolved problem confronting us today.
Yet the sovereignty of states is precisely what the United Nations is intended to protect. It is also the argument of the neo-conservatives (who, by the way, are labeled neoliberals outside the United States) that this principle of sovereignty is outdated and useless; it follows (according to them) that the United Nations is also outdated and useless. This point of view has some merit; however, the neo-conservatives are far too simplistic in their view of the world (which might be the reason we call them conservatives):

1. It is not a choice of "work with the United Nations and get nothing done" versus "work alone and get stuff done." Principle of sovereignty notwithstanding, the United Nations can and has been used to intervene in the internal affairs of states. Whatever its structural weaknesses, the United Nations offers a powerful cloak of legitimacy for any action, and, with its position of power and influence, it is the United States that, more often than not, borrows that cloak to pursue its goals.

2. It is not a choice of "military action" versus "do nothing." This is another false choice offered by the neo-conservative movement. When one looks at the success of the democratic and economic development of S. Korea, it should be noted that the transition from military rule toward democratic rule occurred simultaneously with the growth of Korea's consumer class and its close engagement with the world (i.e., 1988 Olympics). In China, encouraging signs of a similar transformation have appeared over the last decade. A word of caution, however; it is still too early to call, and there will need to be a critical mass of pro-democratic ideas and institutions before we see the cascade of change. Though these examples may be anecdotal in nature, they point to economic and political engagement as tools for fostering a middle class and thereby engendering democracy.

If we refute the false choices offered by the neo-conservatives, we can opt to follow a long-term strategy that involves engagement and economic and social development via international institutions.

Soros again:

I propose replacing the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive military action with preventive action of a constructive and affirmative nature. Increased foreign aid or better and fairer trade rules, for example, would not violate the sovereignty of the recipients. Military action should remain a last resort. The United States is currently preoccupied with issues of security, and rightly so. But the framework within which to think about security is collective security. Neither nuclear proliferation nor international terrorism can be successfully addressed without international cooperation. The world is looking to us for leadership. We have provided it in the past; the main reason why anti-American feelings are so strong in the world today is that we are not providing it in the present. (emphasis added)
Though he doesn't name names, the solution he proposes seems to be an amalgam of the United Nations, the WTO, and the IMF. The latter two are the bogeymen of generally left-leaning persons, while the first appears to be the bane of the right. Yet it seems that this separation between diplomacy, trade, and finance weakens the possible beneficial impacts of all three institutions. Imagine trade predicated on human rights, threats of sanctions offered along with the alternative of badly needed capital or loan-forgiveness, or AIDS relief coupled with microloans and locally beneficial trade agreements, all embedded within an international institution that is not extra-legal or extra-governmental, but rather validated by the consensus of its member states. It's an idealistic thought. Very impractical. But it might be what we should work toward.


Thanks to Glasstrack for the link.

Posted by glyphic at February 7, 2004 12:31 AM

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