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August 06, 2004
American Research Group releases post-convention numbers
American Research Group has some new numbers out this week covering a number of states, including Florida and New Hampshire. In both states we see some very good results for Kerry:
...
John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.
In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.
Most importantly, Nader will not play the role he played in 2000 in these contests if he continues to hover at 2-3%. As you may remember, Nader got more votes than the difference between Bush and Gore in these states in 2000. It would still be better to add those numbers to the Kerry column, but I'd be more worried if Kerry and Bush were in a dead heat. More on Nader in a bit.
Posted by glyphic at August 6, 2004 03:03 PM