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« Weekly game results: October 27 | Main | Dirty Tricks »
October 28, 2004
Polls, polls, polls
Daily Kos reports on Kevin Drum's report on a Republican pollster's latest battleground state polls (PDF):
Bush-Cheney: 47%
Kerry-Edwards: 47%
Nader-Camejo: 1.6%
Undecided: 4%
On the face of it, this is good news, especially coming from a Republican poll. Undecideds traditionally break more toward the challenger, so Kerry's got the edge.
But even better news ahead: if the poll is weighted to use exit poll data from 2000 and changes in demographics in the past four years, the results are far more clear cut:
Bush-Cheney: 45%
Kerry-Edwards: 50%
Nader-Camejo: 1.6%
Undecided: 3.7%
These are the battleground states: CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI. These are the places where anti-minority, anti-voter dirty tricks will have the greatest effect. Be on your guard, and get out the vote!
Posted by glyphic at October 28, 2004 01:06 AM