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October 27, 2004
The best data wins
At least that's what my market analysis professor always says. Then again, I think she's a Republican freaknut. Still, if you're not using PokerTracker, you're out of your gourd. For a while I was just importing hand histories to track my own play, but wasn't really using it very much aside from that. I certainly wasn't using it to find leaks in my game, though I really ought to. I think I'm waiting for the PT guide to come out before I do that.
At any rate, recently I've been taking advantage of the fact that PT now auto-imports hand histories off your hard drive for Party. So I open four windows, run PT, and then come back to see what kind of tables I've been observing. I open a separate GameTime window for each table and check out the stats. If there are a bunch of people seeing the flop and going to the showdown, and if a number of people seem to be losing money, I'll put myself on the waitlist. During play, I leave the GT window open so that I have quick access to their starting hands as well as any notes I may take on the players.
Here's a hand where having this data helped me win a decent pot:
saw flop|saw showdown
UTG ($14.2)
UTG+1 ($31.45)
Hero ($16.1)
MP1 ($21.9)
MP2 ($31.21)
MP3 ($20.1)
CO ($23.6)
Button ($27.15)
SB ($30.1)
BB ($43.25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Kc, 9c. SB posts a blind of $0.25. BB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 raises to $3, CO folds, Button folds, SB (poster) folds, BB folds, Hero calls $2.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.50.
Flop: ($10.25) 2c, 2s, 8c (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $5, Hero calls $5, MP2 folds.
Turn: ($20.25) 2h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $8, Hero calls $8.10 (All-In), MP3 calls $0.09.
River: ($36.45) Tc (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $36.45
Main Pot: $36.45, between Hero and MP3. > Pot won by Hero ($36.45).
Hero has Kc 9c (flush, king high).
MP3 has 6s As (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $36.45.
Strictly speaking, I didn't have odds with just the flush draw on the turn. The pot would have had to be paying 4.1:1 if I thought he might have a better hand, but not the boat. In fact, two of my suit would have given him a boat, so with the flush alone, I really needed to get more than 5.6:1. But with the possibility of my making my boat (which I only figured out afterwards), I would have had an additional 6 outs, giving me the correct odds to call. At any rate, the point is not that I made the correct play by accident, but rather that the data I had on this guy helped me feel confident that I was not beat on the turn and had a chance to win outright or chop. I clearly have to firm up my foundational knowledge. It's pretty good, but the word "outs" or "odds" shouldn't even cross my mind, and you shouldn't have to read a post about it.
But if you take anything away from this, it's that PokerTracker is worth the $55. You can make that up in just a few hands depending on the limit you play, and PT might just be the edge you need to make the right move.
Posted by glyphic at October 27, 2004 01:33 AM