StudioGlyphic

"Your opponent cannot fold if you do not bet or raise." –Abdul

3rd Quarter GDP growth

Posted on | October 31, 2003 | No Comments

The Commerce Department announced that GDP had grown by 7.2% in the third quarter. Fueled by consumer spending and business spending, the record growth (unseen in 19 years) is a victory for the Bush administration, whose management of the economy has been under attack by Democrats and questioned by Americans. Bush and his team immediately jumped on the numbers as a sign that the tax cuts were working and the economy was on the rebound.

One of the key issues of next year’s election will be the economy, and in light of the recent GDP numbers, Bush’s prospects seem good. However, with 2.9 million jobs lost, and recent announcements of more layoffs and significant mergers, all the positive GDP growth numbers won’t dispel the unease most Americans feel about the economy without significant improvement in job creation.

Furthermore, the biggest factors contributing to the 7.2% were interest rates and child tax credit refunds. With the record-low interest rates, a flurry of mortgage refinancing allowed homeowners to keep more of their after-tax income. Tax rebates gave them cash on hand. Both were used to purchase durable goods such as cars (helped by low interest rates as well as dealer incentives and rebates) and appliances. In other words, consumers took advantage of present conditions to borrow against the future. It is unclear whether consumers will be able to keep up this pace of spending—how many cars do you need, especially when your job may be at risk?

Not to mention the fact that the bulk of the tax cuts went to trimming marginal rates of the highest earners as well as cutting the capital gains and estate taxes of the wealthy. This creates a structural revenue loss for the federal government. With heavy spending on Iraq occupation and reconstruction contributing to the deficit (and somewhat to economic growth), the federal debt will continue to expand, funded by more and more borrowing.

Why is this bad? Federal borrowing results in the diversion of capital from the private sector to the public. As debts increase to worrisome levels, investor confidence falls, and interest rates rise to offset risks, making it more expensive for individuals and corporations to borrow, thus discouraging spending. Furthermore, taxpayer dollars will have to go toward repayment of this debt in greater and greater amounts, reducing the amount of public investment in the economy on top of private investment. As the job base of the country crosses borders and oceans in search of lower operating costs, the nation will lose its primary source of revenue.

Like all of its policies, the Bush administration’s spending and tax policies cynically rely on disaster to be averted until after the next election. This is a dangerous game—both for the country and the administration. The next 12 months will show how well they come through.

Economist.com | America’s economy roars ahead

NY Times | White House Takes Credit for Surge in Economy

Washington Post | U.S. Economic Growth Surges

Category: Politics

These guys are nuts

Posted on | October 30, 2003 | No Comments


(Mark Boster / LAT)

Washington Post: Drawn to The Flame

Ash is falling like rain. It’s 3 p.m. and the sun burns a crimson circle through a gray nimbus. The mountain glows like a volcano about to erupt.

…

As a wall of flame explodes skyward along the scrub-covered spine of the ridge, Bagala — collapsed in a wheelbarrow as if it were an easy chair — thinks about how close he came to missing this one. He happened to be filling in for a buddy on what would have been his day off when the call came in.

The buddy whose shift he took, “he’s not too happy right now,” Bagala says. Every firefighter wants to be in the fire zone.

…

The reserve will be a nightmare to defend. Only a single winding, uneven dirt road provides access to a group of hacienda-style houses nestled at the base of some mountains, leaving few options for beating a hasty retreat. Unlike in Stevenson Ranch, there is no apron of moist greenery around the buildings, just a single hydrant and a swimming pool.

After a quick triage, the firefighters set about cutting down what trees they can. The plan here is to create a buffer around the structures and to use the pool water if necessary. If the fire blows through, they will take refuge in one of the buildings, stay close to the floor and hope it doesn’t catch fire.

It’s little wonder that some firebugs turn out to be the very people who are supposed to be stopping the fires. Like in a John Woo film, the heroes and villains are just two sides of the same coin.

Category: Linkworthy, News

Poke-a-sheep

Posted on | October 30, 2003 | No Comments

Wow, some people are are really strange.

poke-a-sheep

Category: Fun Stuff

The New Republic Online: At His Service

Posted on | October 30, 2003 | No Comments

The New Republic Online: At His Service

Howard Dean is about to take another huge step toward winning the Democratic nomination. According to union officials and aides to several campaigns, it is nearly certain that the Service Employees International Union (seiu) will endorse Dean next week. This may sound like just another obscure piece of campaign inside baseball, but the endorsement could transform the race.

Good overview of SEIU and what its endorsement of Dean would mean for the Democratic nomination.

Category: Politics

PETA Wants to Change CA Town’s Name

Posted on | October 29, 2003 | No Comments

PETA Wants to Change CA Town’s Name

What a bunch of fruitcakes.

Category: Linkworthy
keep looking »

  • Recent Posts

  • Recent Comments

  • Archives