Mistakes on the bubble

Comments

11 responses to “Mistakes on the bubble”

1. May 3, 2005

   Shelly

   I’d have pushed, but I have a BAD habit of doing that at bubble time, figuring my hand is best at the moment, but not taking into consideration that my tournament LIFE is at stake, and do I really want to risk it with a coin flip?

   Then again, they say that you have to win those coin-flips and accumulate chips to win a tourney, and to do that, you have to allow yourself to take those chances… so….

   Had I been in your shoes, I probably would have played my hand to the river despite the ace onboard, and probably woulda busted out on the bubble with my jacks 🙂 So congrats for making the laydown and making the money!!

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2. May 3, 2005

   April

   Yes, all-in PF would probably have been the best move. But there’s that damn hindsight thing again…

   I might have tried a check/fold, check/raise.

   He raised, then you re-raised. So he’s probably got AK or pockets. Obviously if he’s got AK you’re screwed. Pockets he’s going to be scared by the A just like you (unless he hit a set, of course). So why not check and then if he checks, you can try the feeler bet at the turn. Check and if he bets, depending on the amount, try a raise, and if he calls…well then we know where we are, don’t we? If he folds…sweet.

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3. May 3, 2005

   hdouble

   No, no, no. You played this correctly preflop. The allin-overbet preflop is a common horrible play, and I hate it more than anything. It comes from a lack of understanding of odds.

   Ok, so lets assume he’s got A-something. You correctly raise to 500, and he now has 660:340 or 1.94 to 1. He is ONLY getting the right price if he’s got an overpair.

   Just for kicks, let’s give him the following probabilities for hand ranges:
   Overcards 40% –> .85:1
   One Overcard 20% –> .39:1
   Overpair 40% (huge overestimate here)–> 4:1

   So even if we grossly overestimate the his chances of having an overpair, our expected value is just about even (you do the math).

   Now the point here is, you correctly forced him to make a mistake preflop by making him call too much. But you have to be able to play it correctly postflop. But you put yourself in a position to win 1080 chips (if an A or K doesn’t hit) rather than winning only 160 chips.

   The monkey all-in is a play reserved for those who fear gambling theory and post-flop play.

   Reply
4. May 4, 2005

   Drizztdj

   Thinking for the monkeys makes the problem twice as hard since they do not play according to “odds” nor do they care what cards you might hold.

   You just got unlucky with the Ace hitting the flop. Hope that paint dried quickly from watching my exciting Razz SnG 😛

   Reply
5. May 4, 2005

   ScottMc

   So April brought this to my desk and since it is keeping her from being productive at her job and that directly affects me I will toss in my $.02

   It is a $20 SNG the bubble doesnt matter in a SNG really is gettting 3rd that much better than 4th? In a MTT after fighting your way thru 190 other players sure, the bubble would suck. Lets be realistic here… it is just $20 bucks!

   If you really want to protect this hand you got to make it hurt for them to call you PF but like TJ says ” You bet them big Pre-Flop and fold them Post-Flop”

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6. May 5, 2005

   Mourn

   “It is a $20 SNG the bubble doesnt matter in a SNG really is gettting 3rd that much better than 4th? In a MTT after fighting your way thru 190 other players sure, the bubble would suck. Lets be realistic here… it is just $20 bucks!”

   Of course third is vastly better than fourth considering it’s the difference between winning something and winning nothing. Play four-handed (and to a slightly lesser extent, five-handed) is the most important in a standard one table SnG. Almost anyone can fold into fifth in an internet sit and go because you’re usually sitting with at least 3 bad players, especially when the buy-in is “It is a $20 SNG the bubble doesnt matter in a SNG really is gettting 3rd that much better than 4th? In a MTT after fighting your way thru 190 other players sure, the bubble would suck. Lets be realistic here… it is just $20 bucks!”

   Of course third is vastly better than fourth considering it’s the difference between winning something and winning nothing. Play four-handed (and to a slightly lesser extent, five-handed) is the most important in a standard one table SnG. Almost anyone can fold into fifth in an internet sit and go because you’re usually sitting with at least 3 bad players, especially when the buy-in is <= $20. How you play from the point to the money is critical to your ROI. Look at it this way: 60% of the prize pool is distributed when it gets down to three players, at that point you're only playing for 40% and second place is only an additionl 10%. Back to the hand, I agree that your raise was the correct play, if you had fewer chips moving all in would be correct, there's not point in raising part of your stack if it leaves you pot committed, but you had enough to fold after the flop and still be ok. If he had AK or AQ, he most likely calls your all-in and you finish fourth anyway. If he didn't have an ace, you got out played by someone with more chips. Happens all the time, at least you held on to enough of your stack to finish in the money.

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7. May 5, 2005

   Mourn

   Just an afterthought, your flop bet is screaming “I hate that flop, please go away.” With T1100 left and roughly the same amount in the pot, you have to decide at this point if you’re playing for all your chips. Betting 300 looks like you’re leaving yourself enough to fold. When the flop comes and fits the most logical holding for your opponent and you’re out of position, you need to swear under your breath and check…

   Reply
8. May 12, 2005

   pokerpundit

   The two best replies here (no offense) are HDoubles and Drizz’s, seems to me.

   HDouble has the pot odds worked out perfectly; but Drizz has the point nailed. At a $20 SNG, there is no concept of odds, nobody (except perhaps you) is even calculating pot odds.

   Your preflop raise screamed mid-to-high PP.

   If it was me, I would have put you on TT there. At that point, I no longer need an Ace or a K to call the raise (I can call with QJs, QT, Q9, etc. now). I just need an A K or Q to flop, because I know if it does, I’m gonna win the hand.

   The guy played it as if he had Ace, but he probably did not. Your really smallish bet on the flop and turn check screamed FEAR of the Ace confirmed for him that you had an underpair.

   My preference here would have been to get the chips in preflop. He does have slightly more chips than you, but the BB had exactly the same chips as you. So, you were most likely going to either get in the money, or not, on this hand. (You eventually made the money anyway, but that was probably just luck or timing of the blinds.)

   April is also correct. It’s $20 bucks. If you are playing in a $20 SNG, and the $9 you are going to make by finishing third means something to you, you are probably underfunded and shouldn’t be playing that high, because it causes you to play timidly.

   Preflop, JJ is a favorite over:

   AT – 71.1%
   AJ – 68.75%
   AQ – 57%
   AK – 57%

   That’s not a coinflip. You have a significant advantage here. (The percentages are higher, because these Ax hands cannot make a straight.)

   So for a $9 profit, hey, I’d make the guy suck out my hooks.

   He wins, hey, good game.

   If you win however, you are now in position to really THUMP the table; they will fear you and not try to steal from you, and with this newfound respect, you will rob them blind and outplay them. They will put in their notes: “When this guy goes all in, he has a hand.”

   Instead, they are now putting in their notes: “I can outplay this guy and he will lay.”

   Reply
9. May 12, 2005

   pokerpundit

   Correction:

   “The percentages are higher, because these Ax hands are significantly less likely to make a straight (because you hold 2 of the straight outs.)”

   Reply
10. May 12, 2005

    StudioGlyphic

    I’m not sure if I should feel insulted here or not, but I’ll respond to the Pundit.

    My way of thinking about this hand was pretty different.

    I raised to 3x his bet not out of weakness/timidity, but as a way to get more of his chips into the pot. I felt I had a strong hand and didn’t want to waste it by pushing to gain T240. Of course, when he called, I gave him credit for an ace, at least. If a king or queen had fallen, I’d have moved in. In other words, there are only 4 cards that make me give up. If I’m against a player who thinks QT or Q9 is good to call a reraise with, I might find myself out. That’s poker. With the ace, I felt I had to trust my read and let it go after possibly taking a stab at the pot. Maybe I was outplayed by someone who had nothing. I don’t know.

    Now, if I’d had a weaker hand like AK, AQ, or AJ, pushing preflop would be the better option, since I’d eliminate positional advantage and don’t want to get called as often as I would want with JJ.

    And, no, I wasn’t desperate to make the $20+. I wanted to win the damn thing because I’m competitive. Leaching chips off the UTG raiser with a strong hand would have put me in good stack position. Taking his min-raise and the BB would not have done much of anything.

    I also don’t recall some immense run of luck getting me into the money. Even as a short stack I was stealing liberally from the other short stack and the medium stack and making my better hands pay. I mean, I’m not claiming to be a great tourney player by any means, but I felt I was playing fairly well in this one. As it happens, it was the guy with the big stack who had a rash of big pairs or flopped sets to get to where he was.

    The funny thing about this discussion is that if we knew he had KK or AA, well, I’d look like a fucking genius right here.

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11. May 15, 2005

    Mike

    Everyone who says making it into 3rd should be ignored shouldn’t play SNGs anymore, or at least shouldn’t be dispensing advice. The person who said play to win in a SNG but play to money in a MTT. Um …

    SNG, 3rd is 40% of 1st
    MTT, the money is a tiny percentage of 1st.

    You’ve got it backwards.

    Person who said “if you’re playing for 9 dollars you should move down (paraphrasing).”

    Sunk Cost – Look it up.

    EV is EV. You should play to maximise EV, even if you s**t 9 bucks.

    The person who said “60% of the pool is distributed when you get down to 3 (paraphrasing).” Exactly. Great phrasing.

    With 4 people left, you need significantly better than 50% odds to be willing to play for all your chips. Google the Independant chip model and do the tEV math.

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