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"Your opponent cannot fold if you do not bet or raise." –Abdul

Half of all marriages end in divorce

Posted on | December 1, 2009 | 2 Comments

Or do they?

Nationwide, about half of all marriages end in divorce.

via Movement under way in California to ban divorce – Yahoo! News.

I’m really sick of hearing this “fact” being passed around. Fortunately the AP article cited a source for this data so that I can attack the reporter’s stupidity:

* Number of marriages: 2,162,000

* Marriage rate: 7.1 per 1,000 total population

* Divorce rate: 3.5 per 1,000 population (44 reporting States and D.C.)

Source: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2008, table A

via FASTSTATS – Marriage and Divorce.

So, let’s see… 3.5 divided by 7.1 gets you 49%! Half of all marriages end in divorce.

Let’s try that with some other numbers:

2.4 divided by 4.3 gets you 56%! Over half of all births end in death.

Of course, the reality is that 100% of all births end in death, and there’s no simple statistic you could calculate for divorce.

Here are some descriptive statistics that you could try to get:

  • For all marriages that occurred in 1980, what percentage were still intact, ended in death, or ended in divorce in 2005?
  • For all people who died in 2000, what percentage were ever married and what percentage were ever divorced?
  • For all divorces that occurred in 1995, what were the mean and decile number of months/years the marriages lasted?

But what does any of this mean for your marriage? Probably nothing.

Category: Rant

Pay as you go

Posted on | July 23, 2009 | 4 Comments

Pretty soon you’ll be able to pay a toll and drive in the carpool lanes by yourself.

Metro Board Approves Toll Rates for Freeway Expresslanes as Part of Congestion Reduction Demonstration Project

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (Metro) Board of Directors today approved toll rates to be used on portions of the I-10/I-110 ExpressLanes following a series of public hearings that gathered public input on the tolling pricing proposal to be implemented as part of the agency’s Congestion Reduction Demonstration Project (ExpressLanes) that will debut late next year.

The new adopted toll rates will range from 25 cents to $1.40 a mile for solo drivers using the ExpressLanes. Tolls will go into effect with the opening of the ExpressLanes in December 2010.  Staff estimates that the average trip on the I-10 ExpressLanes will be nine miles with an average toll of $6 depending on demand and the average trip on the I-110 ExpressLanes is five miles for an average toll of $5.

The big question is… how is this supposed to reduce congestion?

Freeways are congested because they are free. No individual has any incentive to change their behavior, their location, or their job when you can theoretically zip along a 4-5 lane interstate at 60mph. Of course, the reality is that when enough people try to do this, the system comes to a congested halt.

If the goal is to reduce congestion, charge tolls for every lane, not just the carpool lanes. Base the charges on time of day (free between 9pm and 5am, $.50/mile between 7am-10am, $.70/mile between 4pm-7pm, etc.) and build in rate increases to adjust to inflation and changes in congestion patterns.

Charging drivers money instead of time for using the freeway will immediately change their behavior. They’ll combine/postpone/eliminate trips, move the location of their jobs or homes, or change their mode of transportation to foot/bicycle/transit/carpool. As long as the tolls adjust in response to average speeds on the tollway, we can ensure that it works efficiently and at optimal capacity.

With all the revenue generated from the new tolls, we can invest in both maintaining the highways and building high capacity transit alternatives. Soon enough, we’ll have a multi-modal system that offers equally compelling choices.

Category: Rant

The war on stupid links

Posted on | March 6, 2009 | No Comments

To the members of the world wide web development community… I never want to see this again:

Click here to do something.

If you want to do something, click here.

Click here if you don’t want something to happen.

Of course you click links! We don’t need you to tell us how to interact with a link on a goddamn web page. If my parents can figure it out, so can everyone else.

Category: Rant

Short-term memory

Posted on | February 26, 2009 | No Comments

One day, perhaps in the near future, gay people will have the rights and responsibilities that come along with marriage. They’ll be recognized by society as committed couples just as straight people are, heart-broken widows and widowers will have inheritance rights over their homophobic in-laws, and gay celebrities will fight their divorce and custody battles in the pages of the tabloids and the courts.

It won’t take too long for society to forget that we voted in favor of ballot initiatives like Proposition 8; there won’t be any collective sense of shame because we are not only shameless, but brazen in our shamelessness. Jim Crow? That’s old news. Ditto Executive Order 9066, which put over 100,000 Japanese-Americans in internment camps, because they were trusted less than Americans of Italian or German descent. Women’s Suffrage and Alien Land Law? That’s really old shit. The Trail of Tears, Chinese Exclusion Act, and slavery? What century are you living in?

It’s really unfortunate. We keep patting ourselves on the back about how we are the most-free, the most-tolerant, the hands-down pinnacle of human civilization–which in many ways we are–but we forget about the decades and centuries of struggle and death that got us where we are, we like to think that every generation gets a fresh-start without the baggage of the previous generation, and we don’t recognize the disconnect between what we say we are and what we actually do.

It’s easy when you’re a straight, married man with some education and a decent job to file this away under “Abstract thing that I’ll voice an opinion about in polite conversation but doesn’t affect me” (along with single mothers, homelessness, and at-risk kids). But maybe when your life’s biggest problems are whether you could have saved more money buying from newegg.com or whether you want to buy a BMW or lease a Porsche you should take advantage of that human gift of looking outside yourself and fucking do it.

Category: Politics, Rant

Korean Internet FTW

Posted on | February 3, 2009 | 2 Comments

TJ posted a bulletin on MySpace featuring this news tidbit:

Far East Gizmos: While in Korea download a 120-minute film in just 12 seconds!

Korea is to acquire the world’s fastest wired and wireless Internet service at 10 times the speed of the current service by 2012. The government and the communications industry plan to invest some W34 trillion over the next five years in the project. The Korea Communications Commission finalized plans for Internet services at an average speed of 1 Gbps through fixed lines and 10 Mbps through wireless. One Gbps allows users to download a 120-minute film in just 12 seconds. The aim is to give users seamless access to large-capacity, high-quality convergence services such as IPTV.

Although the super-speed internet will be available mainly in large cities, fixed-line subscribers in smaller towns in Korea will also have access to 50 to 100 Mbps Internet service allowing them to watch IPTV programs without a hitch.

TJ asks: “Why the hell is the US so far behin​d?​”

I think the primary reason for this is density:

Korea has 49 million people living in a 38,622 sq mi country. By contrast, California has 37 million people in a 163,696 sq mi state.

Korea’s ten largest cities hold 29 million people (60% of the population). The United States’ ten largest cities hold 25 million people (8% of the population). The #10 city, San Jose, doesn’t even break the 1 million mark.

When you can reach most of the population by wiring up your biggest cities, the task is not only achievable, but you’ll also be able to find the political will to take it on.

The Koreans’ willingness to let the government do and mandate big things (e.g., giant international airport, high speed rail system) gets stuff done:

The Koreans are willing to spend $24.4 billion ($498 per person) to get awesome Internet for everyone (100Mbps – 1 Gbps).

By contrast, we Americans are considering $9 billion ($29 per person) to kinda sorta catch up to what Korea already has for many of its citizens (5Mbps – 100Mbps). On the sidelines, some people criticize the incentive as a giveaway for Verizon.

NY Times: Verizon Could Get $1.6 Billion in Senate Stimulus Plan

…

Jessica Zufolo, an analyst with Medley Global Advisors, said that last phrase–”or any residential subscriber” — means that a company could receive the tax credit for service to any home, whether or not it is in a rural, low-income, or unserved area.

Moreover, right now Verizon’s FiOS service, which runs fiber optic cables to customers’ homes, is by far the largest provider of Internet service that meets the 100 megabits-per-second hurdle.

“On first blush it appears that this will be very beneficial to Verizon,” Ms. Zufolo said.

At this point I think we need to be grateful that Verizon even has a product/service that can reach the 100Mbps threshold. We need to give them that per subscriber tax incentive of $29. We should also give them that jobs creation incentive they’ve been talking about so that every neighborhood can relish the sight of the Verizon FIOS van mucking around with the tubes. Hell, for good measure we can let them depreciate all their old DSL equipment. Give me FIOS!

Category: Politics, Rant
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